Eniola Yekini
President Bola Tinubu has welcomed the World Bank’s October 2026 Nigeria Development Update, saying its findings show that the administration’s economic reforms are delivering results.
The report, titled :Beyond the Federal Purse: How Higher Revenues Reshaped State Priorities, noted that the poverty rate has stabilised for the first time since 2019 and is expected to decline gradually as GDP growth outpaces population growth.
According to the report, the economy grew by 4.2 per cent in the first half of 2026, up from 3.9 per cent in the same period of 2025, despite the impact of the conflict in the Middle East. The Bank projects growth to average at least 4.4 per cent between 2026 and 2028.
On inflation, the report said headline inflation fell from 27.6 per cent in January 2025 to 15.2 per cent in December 2025. It noted that higher global fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict have slowed the decline, but expects inflation to ease to about 12 per cent by 2028.
Nigeria’s external position also strengthened, with the current account surplus rising to $12.0 billion, or 7.0 per cent of GDP, in the first half of 2026, up from $8.6 billion a year earlier. Gross external reserves increased from $45.5 billion at the end of 2025 to $53.8 billion at the end of August 2026.
The report credited reforms since 2023 with raising federation revenues by 69 per cent in real terms between 2023 and 2025, with states as the largest beneficiaries. States increased capital spending by 151 per cent in real terms over the period, with most of the increase going to roads and transport, agriculture, energy and housing. Twenty-nine of 33 states shifted spending towards economic infrastructure, while real social spending per person rose in all but one state.
The Bank also found that internally generated revenue grew in real terms in 31 of 35 states, 21 states reduced their debt-to-GDP ratio between 2021 and 2025, and Nigeria’s overall public debt is expected to fall from 40.0 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 38.1 per cent in 2026.
Reacting, President Tinubu said the findings confirm that the removal of petrol subsidy, unification of the foreign exchange market and fiscal discipline measures have raised revenues, stabilised the economy and created fiscal space for all tiers of government.
“These findings confirm that the difficult but necessary decisions to remove the petrol subsidy, unify the foreign exchange market and strengthen fiscal discipline have raised revenues, stabilised the economy and created fiscal space for every tier of government to invest in its people.
“The dividends of reform are becoming visible. But more work remains to ensure they fully translate into better living standards for every household, starting with lower food prices and decent jobs for our young people,” the President said.
He said his administration would stay the course of reform and focus on inclusive growth under the Renewed Hope Agenda.
“We will continue to expand targeted cash transfers, which have already reached more than 10 million households. We will accelerate the deployment of CNG, raise agricultural productivity, and improve access to affordable healthcare and quality education, so that the prosperity being created is shared by all,” he said.
Tinubu urged state governments to use higher revenues prudently and prioritise projects that improve living standards, health and education.
He commended the Economic Management Team led by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, state governors and stakeholders for their cooperation, and assured Nigerians that more would be delivered under the Renewed Hope Agenda 2.0.